TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 17
Super Typhoon “#KardingPH” (NORU)
Issued at 2:00 PM, 25 September 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today
• Location of Center (1:00 PM)
The center of the eye of Super Typhoon KARDING was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet and Baler Doppler Weather Radars at 115 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon or 76 km East of Polillo Islands (15.0°N, 122.7°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 240 km/h, and central pressure of 920 hPa
• Present Movement
Westward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 290 km from the center
• TCWS No. 4
> Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
> Warning lead time: 12 hours
> Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
Calaguas Islands, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Maria Aurora), the northern portion of Quezon (the rest of General Nakar, the rest of Infanta, Real), the northern portion of Metro Manila (Marikina, Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela, and Quezon City), the central and southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Gabaldon, the rest of General Tinio, City of Gapan, Peñaranda), the rest of Bulacan, Pampanga, the northern and central portions of Rizal (Rodriguez, City of Antipolo, Tanay, San Mateo, Baras), the southeastern portion of Tarlac (La Paz, Concepcion), and the extreme northern portion of Laguna (Famy, Siniloan, Santa Maria, Pangil)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• This afternoon through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, Rizal, and the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Pangasinan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, the central portion of Quezon, Occidental Mindoro and Camarines Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and the rest of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.
• Tomorrow early morning through early afternoon: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of CALABARZON.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Due to the Southwest Monsoon, occasional to monsoon rains over Palawan, Western Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today and Weather Advisory #1 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 1:30 PM today.
During the passage of KARDING, areas under Wind Signal No. 4 and No.5 will experience winds peaking at typhoon-force strength, while winds may reach storm-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted. Gale-force conditions are likely any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted, while strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
There is a high to very high risk of storm surge more than 3.0 m in height in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of northern Quezon including Polillo Islands and Aurora. In addition, a moderate to high risk of storm surge is also possible over Camarines Norte, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bulacan, the northern portion of Metro Manila, the southern portion of La Union, and the rest of Quezon. The combined effects of storm surge and high waves breaking along the coast may cause life-threatening and damaging inundation or flooding. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning #2 issued at 11:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of KARDING, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #4 (Intermediate) issued at 11:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Super Typhoon KARDING is forecast to track generally westward in the next 6 to 12 hours, then west northwestward for the remainder of the day. On the forecast track, KARDING will likely make landfall in the vicinity of the northern portion of Quezon or the southern portion of Aurora tonight. The possibility of an earlier (afternoon) landfall or close approach in the vicinity of Polillo Islands is not ruled out.
• For the remainder of this evening post-landfall through tomorrow early morning, KARDING will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea via the coastal waters of Zambales or Pangasinan. The typhoon will then continue tracking generally westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.
• KARDING is forecast to continue intensifying and may make landfall at or near a peak intensity of 185-205 km/h. Frictional effects during landfall and traverse of the Luzon landmass will weaken KARDING throughout the evening through tomorrow early morning, although it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.